SharpCue · Public Record

Every call we make is logged, scored, and shown here.

Anyone can claim an edge. Below is the falsifiable version: the model's probability for each resolved market, plotted against how often those markets actually happened. If the dots stray from the diagonal, the model is miscalibrated — and you'll see it before we do.

Calibration curve i

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 25 50 75 100 Predicted 8% · Actual 14% · n=21 Predicted 15% · Actual 21% · n=87 Predicted 26% · Actual 15% · n=91 Predicted 36% · Actual 34% · n=117 Predicted 45% · Actual 44% · n=170 Predicted 55% · Actual 52% · n=174 Predicted 66% · Actual 66% · n=187 Predicted 72% · Actual 74% · n=133 Predicted 88% · Actual 100% · n=1 Predicted 94% · Actual 100% · n=6 predicted probability (%) actual frequency (%)
1D 1W 1M 3M 1Y
Brier score i
0.211
lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Resolved predictions i
987
pending picks never counted
Predicted side won
48%
raw hit rate, all confidence
Flat-bet return i
+6.2%
$100 flat on 939 calls ≥10¢ · +$5,865 net
Last updated
Oct 18
from live resolution feed

Recently resolved

The last calls to settle. “Won” means the side the model favored is the side that hit.

NHL If Lucas Raymond records 1+ assists in the San Jose vs Detroit NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 60% · Oct 18 Won
NHL If Tage Thompson records 1+ goals in the Buffalo vs Montreal NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 64% · Oct 18 Lost
NHL If Zach Benson records 1+ goals in the Buffalo vs Montreal NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 23% · Oct 18 Lost
NHL If Bo Horvat records 1+ goals in the New York I vs Toronto NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 68% · Oct 18 Lost
NHL If Bo Horvat records 1+ goals in the New York I vs Toronto NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 68% · Oct 18 Lost
NHL If Matias Maccelli records 1+ points in the New York I vs Toronto NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 57% · Oct 18 Won
NHL If Teuvo Teravainen records 1+ points in the Dallas vs Chicago NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 64% · Oct 18 Won
NHL If Seth Jones records 1+ goals in the Seattle vs Florida NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 14% · Oct 18 Lost
NHL If Sam Reinhart records 1+ goals in the Seattle vs Florida NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 66% · Oct 18 Lost
NHL If Brayden Point records 1+ goals in the Vancouver vs Tampa Bay NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 71% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If Brandon Hagel records 1+ goals in the Vancouver vs Tampa Bay NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 64% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If Mark Jankowski records 1+ goals in the Carolina vs Winnipeg NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 13% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If Alex Tuch records 1+ goals in the New Jersey vs Washington NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 72% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If Alex Tuch records 1+ goals in the New Jersey vs Washington NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 72% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If Tom Wilson records 1+ goals in the New Jersey vs Washington NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 19% · Oct 17 Lost
Climate If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 16, 2026, is less than 78° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 88% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If Jaden Schwartz records 1+ points in the Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 68% · Oct 17 Won
NHL If David Pastrnak records 2+ points in the Boston vs Anaheim NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 67% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If David Pastrnak records 2+ points in the Boston vs Anaheim NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 67% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If Jackson LaCombe records 1+ goals in the Boston vs Anaheim NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 15% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If Mark Kastelic records 1+ goals in the Boston vs Anaheim NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 12% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If Bryan Rust records 1+ points in the Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 54% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If Cale Makar records 2+ points in the Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 70% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If Cale Makar records 2+ points in the Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 70% · Oct 17 Lost
NHL If Martin Necas records 2+ points in the Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 71% · Oct 17 Lost
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For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.