SharpCue · Public Record

Every call we make is logged, scored, and shown here.

Anyone can claim an edge. Below is the falsifiable version: the model's probability for each resolved market, plotted against how often those markets actually happened. If the dots stray from the diagonal, the model is miscalibrated — and you'll see it before we do.

Calibration curve i

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 25 50 75 100 Predicted 3% · Actual 10% · n=241 Predicted 15% · Actual 21% · n=170 Predicted 25% · Actual 28% · n=158 Predicted 35% · Actual 39% · n=244 Predicted 45% · Actual 42% · n=386 Predicted 54% · Actual 53% · n=719 Predicted 64% · Actual 62% · n=410 Predicted 74% · Actual 69% · n=346 Predicted 85% · Actual 77% · n=306 Predicted 96% · Actual 93% · n=715 predicted probability (%) actual frequency (%)
1D 1W 1M 3M 1Y
Brier score i
0.187
lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Resolved predictions i
3,695
pending picks never counted
Predicted side won
58%
raw hit rate, all confidence
Flat-bet return i
+8.0%
$100 flat on 3,496 calls ≥10¢ · +$27,913 net
Last updated
Jul 14
from live resolution feed

Recently resolved

The last calls to settle. “Won” means the side the model favored is the side that hit.

NBA Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Phoenix vs Minnesota scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?
Polymarket_Us · model 25% · Jul 14 Lost
NBA Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Los Angeles vs Atlanta scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC?
Polymarket_Us · model 37% · Jul 14 Lost
Economic If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.880 on Jul 13, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 75% · Jul 13 Won
NBA Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Chicago vs Dallas scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC?
Polymarket_Us · model 30% · Jul 13 Lost
MLB Will Lourdes Gurriel Jr. record at least 3 hits in AZ vs LAD?
Polymarket_Us · model 99% · Jul 12 Won
MLB Will any run be scored in the 1st inning of AZ vs LAD?
Polymarket_Us · model 57% · Jul 12 Won
MLB Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5
Polymarket_Us · model 38% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB If Freddie Freeman records 2+ hits in the Arizona vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 40% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB If San Diego wins the Toronto vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 47% · Jul 12 Won
MLB Will Jose Altuve record at least 1 hits in HOU vs TEX?
Polymarket_Us · model 62% · Jul 12 Won
MLB Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Polymarket_Us · model 53% · Jul 12 Won
MLB If Atlanta wins the Atlanta vs St. Louis professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 2:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 49% · Jul 12 Won
MLB If Pete Crow-Armstrong records 3+ total hits + runs + rbis in the Chicago C vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 49% · Jul 12 Won
MLB If Cal Raleigh records 2+ total hits + runs + rbis in the Seattle vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 52% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
Polymarket_Us · model 41% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
Polymarket_Us · model 53% · Jul 12 Won
MLB If Andrew Abbott records 5+ strikeouts in the Chicago C vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 52% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB If Seattle and Tampa Bay collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Seattle vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 48% · Jul 12 Won
MLB If Shohei Ohtani records 3+ total hits + runs + rbis in the Arizona vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 9:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 53% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB Will the total in AZ vs LAD be more than 6.5?
Polymarket_Us · model 31% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5
Polymarket_Us · model 27% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB Will AZ vs LAD go to extra innings?
Polymarket_Us · model 31% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB If Los Angeles D wins the Arizona vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 9:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 74% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB If Arizona and Los Angeles D collectively score more 13.5 runs in the Arizona vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 9:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 22% · Jul 12 Lost
MLB If Arizona wins by more than 1.5 runs in the Arizona vs Los Angeles D professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 9:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 26% · Jul 12 Won
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For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.