SharpCue · Public Record

Every call we make is logged, scored, and shown here.

Anyone can claim an edge. Below is the falsifiable version: the model's probability for each resolved market, plotted against how often those markets actually happened. If the dots stray from the diagonal, the model is miscalibrated — and you'll see it before we do.

Calibration curve i

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 25 50 75 100 Predicted 25% · Actual 0% · n=1 Predicted 37% · Actual 0% · n=1 Predicted 76% · Actual 100% · n=1 predicted probability (%) actual frequency (%)
1D 1W 1M 3M 1Y
Brier score i
0.086
lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Resolved predictions i
3
pending picks never counted
Predicted side won
33%
raw hit rate, all confidence
Flat-bet return i
-53.7%
$100 flat on 3 calls ≥10¢ · −$161 net
Last updated
Jul 14
from live resolution feed

Recently resolved

The last calls to settle. “Won” means the side the model favored is the side that hit.

NBA Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Phoenix vs Minnesota scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC?
Polymarket_Us · model 25% · Jul 14 Lost
NBA Who will win in the upcoming basketball event Los Angeles vs Atlanta scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC?
Polymarket_Us · model 37% · Jul 14 Lost
Economic If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.880 on Jul 13, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 75% · Jul 13 Won
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For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.