SharpCue · Public Record

Every call we make is logged, scored, and shown here.

Anyone can claim an edge. Below is the falsifiable version: the model's probability for each resolved market, plotted against how often those markets actually happened. If the dots stray from the diagonal, the model is miscalibrated — and you'll see it before we do.

Calibration curve i

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 25 50 75 100 Predicted 61% · Actual 0% · n=1 predicted probability (%) actual frequency (%)
1D 1W 1M 3M 1Y
Brier score i
0.372
lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Resolved predictions i
1
pending picks never counted
Predicted side won
0%
raw hit rate, all confidence
Flat-bet return i
-100.0%
$100 flat on 1 calls ≥10¢ · −$100 net
Last updated
Aug 27
from live resolution feed

Recently resolved

The last calls to settle. “Won” means the side the model favored is the side that hit.

Climate If the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas (CLIDFW) for Aug 26, 2026, is less than 100° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 61% · Aug 27 Lost
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For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.