SharpCue · Public Record

Every call we make is logged, scored, and shown here.

Anyone can claim an edge. Below is the falsifiable version: the model's probability for each resolved market, plotted against how often those markets actually happened. If the dots stray from the diagonal, the model is miscalibrated — and you'll see it before we do.

Calibration curve i

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 25 50 75 100 Predicted 17% · Actual 33% · n=12 Predicted 25% · Actual 19% · n=16 Predicted 37% · Actual 36% · n=25 Predicted 45% · Actual 30% · n=46 Predicted 54% · Actual 49% · n=35 Predicted 64% · Actual 50% · n=10 Predicted 72% · Actual 86% · n=7 predicted probability (%) actual frequency (%)
1D 1W 1M 3M 1Y
Brier score i
0.226
lower is better · 0.25 = coin flip
Resolved predictions i
151
pending picks never counted
Predicted side won
38%
raw hit rate, all confidence
Flat-bet return i
-1.5%
$100 flat on 151 calls ≥10¢ · −$224 net
Last updated
Aug 27
from live resolution feed

Recently resolved

The last calls to settle. “Won” means the side the model favored is the side that hit.

Climate If the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas (CLIDFW) for Aug 26, 2026, is less than 100° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 61% · Aug 27 Lost
MLB If Baltimore and St. Louis collectively score more 17.5 runs in the Baltimore vs St. Louis professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 28% · Aug 27 Lost
MLB If Baltimore and St. Louis collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Baltimore vs St. Louis professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 49% · Aug 27 Won
MLB If Tampa Bay and Detroit collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Tampa Bay vs Detroit professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 1:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 43% · Aug 26 Lost
MLB If Christian Koss records 2+ total hits + runs + rbis in the Cincinnati vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:45 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 64% · Aug 26 Won
MLB If Cleveland and Los Angeles A collectively score more 14.5 runs in the Cleveland vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 42% · Aug 26 Lost
MLB If Steven Kwan records 2+ total hits + runs + rbis in the Cleveland vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 51% · Aug 26 Lost
MLB If Cincinnati wins the Cincinnati vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:45 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 55% · Aug 26 Lost
MLB If Cleveland and Los Angeles A collectively score more 7.5 runs in the Cleveland vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 50% · Aug 26 Won
MLB If Milwaukee and New York M collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Milwaukee vs New York M professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 44% · Aug 26 Lost
MLB If Tampa Bay and Detroit collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Tampa Bay vs Detroit professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 25, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 44% · Aug 26 Lost
MLB If Pete Crow-Armstrong records 3+ total hits + runs + rbis in the Chicago C vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 58% · Aug 25 Won
MLB If Chicago C and Arizona collectively score more 9.5 runs in the Chicago C vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 47% · Aug 25 Lost
MLB If Philadelphia and Seattle collectively score more 6.5 runs in the Philadelphia vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 52% · Aug 25 Won
MLB If Boston and Miami collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Boston vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 42% · Aug 25 Lost
MLB If Tampa Bay and Detroit collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Tampa Bay vs Detroit professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 24, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 44% · Aug 25 Lost
Tennis If Jessica Pegula wins the Gauff vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Cincinnati Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 43% · Aug 24 Lost
MLB If Chicago C and Seattle collectively score more 13.5 runs in the Chicago C vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 34% · Aug 24 Won
MLB If Cleveland and Colorado collectively score more 16.5 runs in the Cleveland vs Colorado professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 3:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 29% · Aug 23 Lost
MLB If Cincinnati and Arizona collectively score more 9.5 runs in the Cincinnati vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 4:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 44% · Aug 23 Lost
MLB If Rafael Devers records 1+ total hits + runs + rbis in the San Francisco vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 3:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 70% · Aug 23 Won
MLB If San Francisco and Boston collectively score more 8.5 runs in the San Francisco vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 3:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 49% · Aug 23 Won
MLB If Toronto and New York Y collectively score more 9.5 runs in the Toronto vs New York Y professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 23, 2026 at 1:35 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi · model 36% · Aug 23 Won
MMA Will the fight go the distance in Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Polymarket_Us · model 24% · Aug 23 Won
MMA Will Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues end by decision?
Polymarket_Us · model 16% · Aug 23 Won
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For information and entertainment only. Not financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.